A project to synthesize Census-generated information and to develop mathematical ecosystem models to predict future changes in marine animal populations caused by environmental and human influences.

Ian Jonsen	Heike Lotze	Boris Worm

Project Leaders:

Dr. Ian D. Jonsen, Population Ecology Division, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia

Dr. Heike K. Lotze, Canada Research Chair in Marine Renewable Resources, Dalhousie University, Department of Biology, Halifax, Nova Scotia

Dr. Boris Worm, Dalhousie University, Department of Biology, Halifax, Nova Scotia

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Visit the FMAP web site

The animal populations in the world's oceans have undergone profound changes throughout history, though much about the causes and effects of these changes is still poorly understood. As the Census of Marine Life and other research around the world collects information on marine life and the physical and chemical environments it inhabits, mathematical models are being developed and refined to integrate and analyze the data so that scientists may interpret it. The Future of Marine Animal Populations (FMAP) is the predictive component of the CoML. FMAP will synthesize the information generated by the CoML and made available through OBIS and use mathematical ecosystem models to predict future changes in marine animal populations based on varied environmental and human impacts on the oceans. Because models require data to be useful, FMAP is only now emerging as the other components of CoML -- OBIS, HMAP and the field projects -- are well underway.

HISTORY & CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS
The Census of Marine Life has been aware from its inception that mathematical models would be important for the synthesis of the research program. Modelers have participated in several CoML workshops in the past and have helped guide strategies for collecting and storing data. The modelers had their first workshop together in Halifax, NS, Canada on 21-23 June 2002. Experts from around the world met to discuss the synthesis and prediction capacity of the data being collected in the CoML projects through ecosystem models, to compare the usefulness of different types of models, to ensure that CoML projects collect the required data for these models, and to develop a plan for the FMAP endeavor.

MISSION & GOALS
FMAP attempts to describe and synthesize globally changing patterns of species abundance, distribution, and diversity, and to model the effects of fishing, climate change and other key variables on those patterns. This work is done across ocean realms and with an emphasis on understanding past changes and predicting future scenarios.

Visit the Future of Marine Animal Populations web site